August 2025 marks the 80th anniversary of the first and only wartime use of nuclear weapons. A de facto moratorium on such use has existed since then.
Recently Vladimir Putin has made veiled threats that he could use nuclear weapons to keep the USA and NATO from helping Ukraine further defend against Russia’s invasion. Further south, Iran has attempted for years to obtain nuclear weapons to achieve its stated goal of annihilating Israel. These and other events have stimulated interest and speculation among journalists, politicians, and those of us who are interested in international current events, that this moratorium could soon come to an end.
So far, public alarm has not risen to the level of that of the 1950s, where schoolchildren practiced diving under their desks as a first response to nuclear attack by the Soviet Union. Nor of the early 1980s, when President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative provoked the Soviets’ saber, er, bomb rattling.
Some observers regard the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 as the closest the world has come to a nuclear war. Thankfully, it was averted. But ever since the Soviets got the bomb, there has been an undercurrent of worry that “somewhere, somehow, a damn foolish thing in a remote place would precipitate a nuclear confrontation that would escalate to involve the whole world” (to paraphrase Otto von Bismarck’s prediction about the inevitable coming of World War I).
Russia, China, and to some degree North Korea, use nuclear threats more as a shield than a sword. North Korea is also too close to South Korea to use a weapon against its neighbor, for fear of backfire on their side. The same applies to India versus Pakistan. Even so, a series of missteps in these venues could precipitate a war between the major powers.
Currently there are nine states that have deployable atomic weapons: the USA, Russia, Great Britain, France, China, Pakistan, India, North Korea, and Israel. Would any of these nations use these weapons?
The concept of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) has doubtless been a major factor in the prevention of a USA-Russia conflict. It surely has crossed the collective mind of other powers.
But what about Russia’s currently unsuccessful war with Ukraine? It can be argued that those two countries are too geographically close and Russia’s nuclear use there would affect Russian territory. At any rate, Putin wants to take over Ukraine more or less intact, not as a radioactive wasteland.
Britain and France have no interest in starting a war with the Russians, or anyone else, but they are members of NATO and bound to come to another member’s aid if that member were attacked.
China? That nation’s goal, beyond obtaining trade dominance, is taking over Taiwan. That can be done with conventional weaponry. If the US were to aid Taiwan militarily, a conventional conflict would be more likely and would not necessarily threaten either power’s homeland.
North Korea is also constrained by geography as to its rival on the southern part of the peninsula. Kim Jong Un’s plan appears to be obtaining a delivery capability to threaten the USA if it uses its military to support the South.
While not yet a member of the nuclear club, Iran under the rule of Islamist mullahs has spent the last decade or so and billions attempting to obtain an atomic bomb and a ballistic missile delivery system. The stated goal of obtaining these weapons is to provide the means to eliminate what the ayatollah and other Islamists consider the Great Satan and Little Satan, that is, the USA and Israel.
Iran is different from other potentially hostile nuclear powers. It is run by religious fanatics who are undeterred that using these weapons would end in their own destruction. Becoming martyrs guarantees entry to heaven to be serviced by many virgins; this a fantasy many take seriously. There is little doubt that Iran would use nuclear weapons if they obtain them.
This threat was abated, at least for now, by Israel (together with USA help) in the so-called Twelve Day War this past June. The threat may recur, especially if the current Iranian regime survives. If it does, Israel, the United States, and the rest of the world will be sorry.
There are numerous books, monographs, and documentary films about the making of the atomic bombs code named “Little Boy” (dropped on Hiroshima August 6) and “Fat Man” (that devastated Nagasaki August 9, 1945). The Manhattan Project, led by General Leslie Groves, with scientific head J. Robert Oppenheimer, was a three-year effort, conducted in secret, to develop an atomic bomb. Unfortunately, it was not secret enough. Stalin’s spies were embedded at Los Alamos and managed to obtain the plans, and the Soviets soon caught up with nuclear technology.
Two books recently reviewed on the Wall Street Journal are Garrett M. Graff’s The Devil Reached Toward the Sky: An Oral History of the Making and Unleashing of the Atomic Bomb and Iain MacGregor’s The Hiroshima Men: The Quest to Build the Atomic Bomb, and the Fateful Decision to Use It. Not sure if this writer will have time to read either, but the reviews were complimentary. The most comprehensive books on the science and engineering, as well as the politics, on development are Richard Rhodes’ The Making of the Atomic Bomb (1986) and, Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb (1995).
Iran’s potential nuclear adventure, coupled with the United States’ porous borders of recent times, has suggested that a terrorist could bring a nuclear bomb into the US, secrete it in a large city, and detonate it. It would be 9/11 on a monumental scale. A 1980 novel The Fifth Horseman, by Larry Collins and Dominique LaPierre, was about terrorists secreting a hydrogen bomb in New York City to blackmail the USA into forcing Israel to remove its settlers from the West Bank. This book is a rattling good yarn.
For those interested, a visit to the American Museum of Science and Energy at Oak Ridge Tennessee, a suburb of Knoxville, is worthwhile. The exhibits there include the development of the atomic bomb during World War II.