At a meeting I attended last night, SMU political science professor Cal Jillson presented some interesting projections for this year’s general election. Jillson bases his prediction on historical observations and current trends as evidenced by polling. Historical data are open to interpretation and polling results are always question specific, and I am not privy to the actual polls he relies on. Therefore, I express no opinion on Jillson’s accuracy predictions other than he is an experienced academician in his field. I note that his colleague Dennis Simon was uncannily accurate in his prediction of the 2010 House of Representatives turnover ten months in advance.
Jillson stated his research and analysis suggests:
The Texas House will lose a few Republicans but the GOP will still control.
The Texas Senate will remain unchanged in its composition; i.e., GOP will control.
Republican David Dewhurst will replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in the U. S. Senate.
The U. S. House will have fewer Republicans, but they will retain control.
The U.S. Senate will gain a GOP majority, but not a super-majority.
Barack Obama will be re-elected, defeating Mitt Romney.
Jillson further dates these predictions are based on current trends. A dip in the economy would put Obama’s re-election in serious jeopardy.
As he put it, though, if you want to win a bet from your brother-in-law. Go with the above. At the moment, I have to agree. I would add that a serious international crisis could help or hurt Obama, depending on how he handled it. Gasoline prices that go too high will hurt the President’s chances. Adjusted for inflation, they are about what they were in the mid-1960s, but they are the most visible price for most people.
As for the prospects for the next four years, who knows. One possibility is that Obama will learn to compromise or make sure he has plenty of ink in his veto pen.